Instinct
I like putting all my eggs in one basket and then watching the basket very carefully…. What a company's been earning doesn't mean anything. What you have to look at is what people think it's going to earn. If you can see something in two years is going to be entirely different than the conventional wisdom, that's how you make money.
- Stanley Druckenmiller
Intuition is a very powerful thing - more powerful than intellect, in my opinion.
- Steve Jobs
As long as a man trades his warrior instinct for entertainment, his soul will not be satisfied. He will be perpetually bored, searching for a way to kill time and quell his longings. A man who’s consumed by his mission, however, who knows what life is about and his part to play, doesn’t need a distraction. His life is the adventure.
Intervention into natural ecosystems may have unknown reverberations.
Skin in the Game farmers & ranchers may have an advantage > tacit knowledge over ivory tower analysts.
Technological gizmos / metaverse could be creating a generational gap between those in real ecosystems & others in a screen watching trance.
Interest rates often act as a hurdle much like the wolf - a natural gate-keeper in our centrally planned economy. Gold back currency has been long gone with mental conditioning seeing people now associate non collateral digital currency as a superior entity.
Tavistock Institute Actor FELON Musk - appears all-knowing & everywhere > Digital Deity.
Everything Popular is Wrong - Oscar Wilde
The margin call of 2008 resulted in record interventions to any type of market economy. Private central banks eliminated price discovery of capital (interest rates) for over a decade. Legendary Grant’s Interest Rate Observer has a recent quip:
“The legacy of a dozen years of zero percent or so rates, the legacy of the era of money growing on trees, the consequence has been the enormous buildup of debt, both in business and government. And what business and government don’t need is higher rates of interest.” - James Grant
Eliminating mark to market accounting was another piece of legislation fostering the Ponzi economy.
The U.S. economy is massively distorted, unhealthy, and hopelessly dependent on Fed stimulus. The Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) sectors of the economy have been overwhelming beneficiaries during the modern age of activist central banking.
Those sectors have collectively doubled in size since 1947 as a percentage of gross domestic product, and they now account for just under 21% of the economy. More than one out of every 5 dollars is generated by banks, brokerages, insurers, and realtors - people who produce nothing tangible.
Manufacturing has fallen from 25.6% of GDP in 1947 to just 10.3% in 2023. - Clint Siegner
Portfolio Adjustments -
Gold trades opposite promises 2 pay. The major bubble is in the fixed income & debt markets.
Standsberry Research recently closed their mining stock newsletter. Retail exhaustion has led to capitulation in many cases.
Stanley Druckenmiller has entered this market in a 50 year fire sale. The XAU [large cap gold miners] relative to gold is trading at around $400 / $500 levels.
Physical gold has broken out of a 13 year cup and handle base.
Macro conditions are moving to Cat 5 levels as USA Inc moves $1T of debt every 100 days.
Contrarian David Hunter call on this global melt up before the bust is looking accurate. He’s calling for a $100 handle on GDXJ this year. We see large caps have had a huge week with phenomenal earnings.
People > Capital Structure > Asset > Execution.
All great investors embrace Volatility!
Writings on other blogs noted buying my 1st real success stock out of jail on Bus 309 on the way to work…. You don’t have to attain $1M+ in liquid capital to act as an accredited investor in a private placement. Ross Beaty’s Anfield Gold share price collapsed upon disappointments near or almost below his personal cash holdings in the company. Was fortunate to move into some small holdings - shares of this company thus essentially buying Ross’s next step for cash. As a billionaire & legendary mine builder and deal guy he merged the company with up and coming Richard Warke to build Equinox Gold.
> > Buy the Crash. Understand people > teams > Cycles.
In 2016/17 employment with Taylor Made Golf was a good stepping stone back to prepare for real battle... Used to call it ‘Club Taylor Made’ as all the cool people worked there with no real interest in the actual history or ethic of golf… much less creating a real business. They have a process to make some decent products but other long essays could be written on the coming shifts and why we see asymmetrical opportunities in specific commodities in supply destruction. Lifestyle companies are often a product of an excessive bull market > ones built upon credit have a special psychological element of hubris…
Today > An inflection point may be close at hand. Added small amounts of these two stocks this week:
Radius Gold [Simon Ridgeway - Founder Fortuna Silver Mines]. Ross Beaty’s PAAS has an earn in with this company who has a conservative capital structure, works as a merchant bank and never diluted thru the epic bear market in junior resources:
-Raised for the first time in a decade to drill a promising property
-JV's with 2 of the biggest silver producers in the world, solid discovery with one of them..
-High grade discovery on the Holly property with VG
-Drilling Motagua Norte which Bruce said has the "Most Gold he has ever seen" on surface
-Fresnillo drilling Plata Verde
Augusta Gold [Richard Warke] - Behind every serially successful deal maker & builder there is humility & a team. Warke noted to file for corporate bankruptcy in 1998 during the very bottom of the brutal bear market where the Bre-X scandal helped suck all the life out of junior mining & exploration. Ross Beaty noted he was months away from bankruptcy with Pan American Silver in 1999. Only today could be near those past days and one could suggest there has been very little put into the ground on greenfield exploration for many metals required by mankind now in Supply Destruction.
Data & real builders see this Arbitrage > Opportunity. Screen Watcher consumers do not.
Picking yourself up and dusting off your shoulders after a wipe out is all about building character and industry knowledge not attainable in collegiate institutions.
Ross Beaty was asked if he had to leave all his capital investments - stewardship under another individual… Answer: Lucas Lundin [R.I.P.] & RIchard Warke.
Just flew back from Logan International Airport / Boston. Warke is a partner in Fenway Sports Group…
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/team/front-office
As a small guy riding a bicycle to the surf we can accumulate shares along side a billionaire legendary deal market. Warke’s cost basis is currently higher and he’s been buying on the secondary market. He currently owns 44% of a company named after his entire gold group.
The wild card not spoken of here is the All Time New highs again [today] for our second largest holding Orogen Royalties. This team has a 1% NSR on the Expanded Silicon asset which is now a Betty district Tier One discovery. This royalty could be part of a 13-14 million ounce discovery getting larger right up the street from The Augusta Group properties. Don Taylor the lead geologist has attained great success and they see areas in permitted regions their Reward property taken over from an over leveraged Private Equity Group.
Insider buying has been impressive.
Die Hard the Hunter - CAS
- Adversity strengthens the foundations
- After a storm comes a calm
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