Thematic Statement
The only PHD that counted in the pits was ‘Papa has Dough. - Mark Spitznagel: The Dao of Capital: Austrian Investing in a Distorted World
Whenever there is any doubt, there is no doubt. That is the first thing they teach you. - Robert De Niro: Rōnin [Film 1988]
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. - Sun Tzu
Ludwig von Mises clarified “credit expansion is the panacea of all economic ills in the Austrian School Economic Treatise ‘Human Action.’ Sir William Rees-Mogg wrote in his book ‘The Reigning Error’ - “Gold was money and money was gold” suggesting the British Empire ay have not achieved integral success without a sound currency.
In another life the author & company builder used to be in the financial advisory & sales business. Life can change fast when moving swiftly towards goals away from your comfort zone. Act while you are young and have energy as there really is no education like tacit knowledge > learning by doing.
Successful High Net / Entrepreneurial worth sales required the presentation of Empirical Data. Providing a layout of the current macro environment, outlining sentiments of institutions & public [retail investors] when looking for salient distortions which may provide asymmetry.
Success in the sales process > Implementing solutions to extensive challenges at scale.
Negative real interest rates since the orchestrated crash of 2008 was a political construct [coercion]. Central Banking
Finding primal interests in life is aided thru exposure. Converting an intense desire into a way into a constructive lifestyle = All the better.
The NASDAQ collapse & 2001 bear market was a reversion to the mean event where new wealth was created and transferred. Crisis equaled opportunity for those prepared.
The Common Man is a local
On March 28, 1854, Great Britain and France declared war on Russia, joining the Ottoman Empire in a conflict that became known as The Crimean War. European powers had not fought a major war against each other since the Napoleonic Wars which ended in 1815. The Crimean War was an imperial war fought on many fronts, including modern day Ukraine, the Baltic Seas, and the Kamchatka Peninsula of East Asia. During the war, modern weaponry and new mass media technologies, such as steamships and telegraphy heightened the intensity of the conflict and brought details of the war rapidly to the global public. [1]
Wars are Capital Intensive Endeavors critical to managing mass psychology. There are winners & losers in multitudes of outcomes. While Europe was busy at War wiping out more lions in the heard wealthy supplied investment capital driving the new emerging economies. The canal boom linking north eastern cities from the Great Lakes thru New York creatives a wild mania into the ‘hungry forties.’
Boom / Bust cycles in the Emerging Market of 1800’s North America often shorter in duration due to extreme credit conditions & public awareness of ‘coin, credit & circulation’ amongst more skin in the game investors. [2] However, Dr. Marc Faber noted the depression from the 1837 crisis was unique in such that it was the first one to be International in Scope [multi-continent].
USA Inc. Experienced a quick recovery due to railroad construction in the mid-1840’s financed by derivative groups never discussed in government history / mental conditioning known as public schools. Pig-Iron production saw a 10 fold increase luring by foreign capital once swearing off the emerging economy from past collapses. By 1853, 26% of all American railroad bonds were in the hands of foreign investors, who focused particularly on more speculative issues. [3] The Index of Railroad Stocks topped out in December of 1852 culminating with the Crimean War draining excessive speculative capital.
A break down of the Ohio Life & Trust Company, specializing in railroad investments and commodity futures acted as a catalyst for the 1857 financial crisis. Sentiment greatly shifted to risk off or fear with the sinking of The Central America, a steamer off the North Carolina Hatteras coast carrying a cargo of an estimated $1.6 million in California Gold. Dr Marc Faber noted a key point in the transition of America’s economy was the sever financial crisis at that time did not pose a larger systemic threat to a diversified real economy [southern cotton exports were asymmetry to Northern Capital Intensive manufacturing often credit dependent > fertile grounds for the ‘war of secession’ vs ‘The Civil War’].
The point of this historical critique is ‘confidence.’ Over expansions of emerging economies or events on credit lead to a circumstance or too many promises to pay.
Today decades of mental conditioning using ‘advanced devices’ while creating significant financial asset wealth has also fostered a centralized and fragile economic system in Western Economies.
Cris comments regarding massive market capitalizations in western nations vs producing nations…
DISTORTIONS
Relevance? The larger picture in the world is a mania in asset bubbles > Securitization.
Past life at Morgan Stanley / Fidelity providing reports on Value & Probabilities > Margin of Safety.
Victim vs Contrarian.
Out of the Furnace providing Clarity.
Dr. Marc Faber
Mathematical formulas require a constant.
Gold was removed as an anchor to all currencies in 1933.
Price discovery of capital - interest rates - were eliminated for a historic decade following the 2008 crash.
Leverage - Probability
What happens when the Y Axis [denominator] is a moving target?
How do you store your energy?
Mining Majors - "Assets are Ephemeral" - Robert Friedland
Revenge of the Miners -
Most Brokers think a ham sandwich comes from the refrigerator.
Families are always rising and falling in America. - Nathaniel Hawthorne
Nowadays people know the price of everything and the value of nothing.
- Oscar Wilde
From 1882 to 1933, the United States used gold certificates as paper currency. You could convert them into gold coins. The US, during that period, had a backed currency – backed by gold.
Specie or collateral currency ensures discipline. We have none today.
A decade of zero interest rate policy ended in a crescendo of Greed & Fear.
Rotation from Ponzi Growth Promise to Pay > Value
ARCC & FTX
30 + Years since an exploration bull market
Goals transitioning out to the world was learn about manufacturing, supply & international capital markets.
M16A2 Rifle Instructor - Change life Path - Supply Officer - Asia
Tolstoy:
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already what is laid before him.”
Mathematical formulas require a constant.
Gold was removed as an anchor to all currencies in 1933.
Price discovery of capital - interest rates - were eliminated for a historic decade following the 2008 crash.
Leverage - Probability
What happens when the Y Axis [denominator] is a moving target?
How do you store your energy?
Mining Majors - "Assets are Ephemeral" - Robert Friedland
Revenge of the Miners -
Most Brokers think a ham sandwich comes from the refrigerator.
From 1882 to 1933, the United States used gold certificates as paper currency. You could convert them into gold coins. The US, during that period, had a backed currency – backed by gold.
Specie or collateral currency ensures discipline. We have none today.
A decade of zero interest rate policy ended in a crescendo of Greed & Fear.
Rotation from Ponzi Growth Promise to Pay > Value
ARCC & FTX
30 + Years since an exploration bull market
Goals transitioning out to the world was learn about manufacturing, supply & international capital markets.
M16A2 Rifle Instructor - Change life Path - Supply Officer - Asia
Tolstoy:
“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already what is laid before him.”
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