Be more concerned with your character than your reputation, because your character is what you really are, while your reputation is merely what others think you are. - John Wooden
An ounce of practice is generally worth more than a ton of theory. - E. F. Schumacher [Small is Beautiful]
“In 2008, Wall Street guru Michael Burry realizes that a number of subprime home loans are in danger of defaulting. Burry bets against the housing market by throwing more than $1 billion of his investors' money into credit default swaps. His actions attract the attention of banker Jared Vennett (Ryan Gosling), hedge-fund specialist Mark Baum (Steve Carell) and other greedy opportunists. Together, these men make a fortune by taking full advantage of the impending economic collapse in America.” - The Big Short Summary - Alpha ‘Bet’ Inc. [DARPA Bernays Propaganda]
The 2008 debacle was created by decades of securitization and psychological acceptance of financial leverage. Warren Buffett commenced his discussion of financial derivatives in 1997 before the Long Term Capital Management Crisis [LTCM] in 1998 where the ‘Greenspan Put’ became notorious with the elimination of Glass-Steagall legislation in 1998.
Dr. Marc Faber was noting government agencies Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae were applying near 50x leverage assuming no error over 2% ensuing insolvent balance sheets.
Summary -
Actions of those going short in 2008 didn’t create the crisis the real ‘opportunists’ was the financial industry and the supposedly regulator of markets. The bomb was built after a decade of turning safe harbor assets into a casino with government agents part of the carousel.
Note the vernacular / propaganda. ‘Greedy & Opportunists.’ Markets without short sellers lose liquidity as well as checks & balances.
George Soros amassed his billions betting against unsustainable events. This insider isn’t seen in the same light for all kinds of reasons.
How does this relate to our concept of Small is Beautiful? [1]
Nothing has been corrected since 2008. No one went to jail and the markets were not allowed to work. A decade of ‘taking the hurdle away’ [Stanley Druckenmiller] thru zero percent interest rate policies by communist central bankers has created significant asset bubbles in many asset classes.
Capital flows to digital entities on computers & smart devices based upon charts and not real value.
“We have confused shuffling pieces of paper with the creation of wealth.” - Robert Moriaty
During our time away this opportunity was never imagined. A promise to pay could be a James Bond, Fixed Income or a Growth Stock story much less numerous syndicated derivatives.
Central Banks & key new emerging market economies are adding record numbers of the opposite > PAYMENTS IN FULL to their balance sheets.
Central banks added a whopping 1,136 tonnes of gold worth some $70 billion to their stockpiles in 2022, by far the most of any year in records going back to 1950, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday. - Reuters 02.08.23
With a capital market balance sheet sub accredited investor level the opportunities are different than those pitched at higher level conferences.
“I come from the gutter… and I’m not a compromiser.” - Steve McQueen [Le Mans]
Surfers focus on position to catch wave energy. Once ‘dropping in’ we react to what ‘The Wave’ provides.
Exploration in metals markets have been in a 25 year bear market in what could be described as a depression in the industry. Intellectual capital has moved to high flying technical services & the levered financial sector.
Supply destruction & low CAPEX / Capital Expenditures are real & days of reckoning are arriving.
These huge storm systems combined with the insolvency of the Ponzi Casino are now moving around on the horizons.
SUMMARY
We’ve seen this movie before. Cycles > Size & Scale of these storms are Magnified.
“The fight is won or lost far away from witnesses – behind the lines, in the gym, and out there on the road, long before I dance under those lights.” - Muhammad Ali
“ When you arise in the morning think of what a privilege it is to be alive, to think, to enjoy, to love ...” - Marcus Aurelius
“Don’t change horses mid apocalypse.” - Colorado Bumper Sticker
Contrarian Ideas - Bohemian Style - Principled Action
California Sur online will soon promote our future endeavor in Manantiales, Uruguay.
Current site is currently used to record ideas, document progress toward our goal and promotion of the book Front Runner. Any publication would essentially produced to document essential philosophies and strategies for successful action plans. An amalgamation of great works of mentors could help the youthful aspiring entrepreneur to the international speculator [Doug Casey].
There is more opportunity than ever. Find a passion. Storms everywhere because we have lost our heritage.
Arachán Capital junior resource stock portfolio nearly complete from secondary market sales in 2022. Front Runner will document the possible historic opportunity and potentially others as change accelerates.
O U T L I N E
1. Introspection - Begin with the end in Mind
2. Heritage & Culture [stand under - he who controls the past… know thyself]
3. Philosophy -
4. Back to the Future [cycles] - State Intervention - Force creating distortions
5. Opportunities in Crisis / Contrarian [wealth transfer - living w/corruption]
6. Market Sentiment / Cognitive Biases [nothing new under the sun - mania]
7. Human Action - Equitable Solutions [making corruption your friend]
8. Balance [more than one life - art / physical]
9. Healthy Pain - Learning to Enjoy Feeling Alive with Natural Solutions
10. Service to Producers [teaching to fish]
11. Time is on Our Side [3 points/what, where & who] Travel, Embrace Wisdom
12. Kill your Television / Military Weapon
13. Values - ‘Rational Buddhism’ [Naval]
Cycles - REAL vs Digital / GLD vs Physical
Lending / Equitable solutions [stream]
Financial leverage to achieve amplification of returns requires a harvesting strategy. We see many funds who borrow money on small sums of collateral seeking multiples on their capital as potential land mines everywhere.
Knowing thyself - Cognitive Biases list
Currently acting as an Elevator Operator / Chevron Gas Station Attendant and possible consultative sales representative in the Insurance Industry.
Politics- Everyone seems to want to be on a team or take sides - countries - instead of hone In on a sound philosophy
__________________
Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes." - Oscar Wilde
You are either a contrarian or a victim. * The lesson was evident as the steel handcuffs tightened down on our wrists. Harnessed to other inmates in preparation for transport to another ‘Reentry’ Facility down on the Mexican Border was instructive. Inmate politics ensured my departure from comfortable trustee status in a North County San Diego inmate center. A conversation over ethics and the corrupt principals of majority (mob) rule could have added to my acceleration back to general population wearing a blue uniform. Past experiences driving the pacific highway seeing the prisoner busses in black & white were now dreams. Never did imagine I’d reach the destination of losing all sovereign freedoms so swiftly. Facing a fearful chapter can be a tremendous gift.
‘When I let go of what I am, I become what I might be.’ - Lao Tzu
*This prominent quote by a reputable resource investment manager best summarized my situation on a dark and cold evening in January of 2016
Vulnerable points exist all over the body but remember that the greatest number of them exist from the collarbones up. Within this relatively small area of the neck, you have: Two carotid arteries that feed blood to the brain.
In challenging times its best to be grounded with many tools at one's disposal. Upon arrival of my new high tech gladiator home* I was approached by three young men with colorful tattoos exhibiting their heritage. Fortunately, a past client within the Navy Special Forces had instructed tactics when addressing such situations. When backed into a corner and prepared (few months of pushups & body preparation) one may be surprised what can be accomplished.
A better understanding was established between my new friends regarding personal space and elderly respect. No reason to use the carotid arteries which feed blood to the brain. Better we call get along and another lesson on mutual respect.
____________
Confinement around stale air among no books or healthy food and water was the real nightmare. Fetidly can be a putrid teacher & relentless motivator.
Entering the California penal system for DUI was constructive to stop a 3 plus year binge drinking myself to death.
In jail one gets to focus on push-ups, chess, reading and if you are lucky to be a trustee to receive and serve new laundry to some dangerous looking individuals in isolation.
Reading Thoreau, Ayn Rand, Dr. Marc Faber & Malcom X were envisioned thru a new extreme clarity.
No cell phones. Hard cold cement. Sourcing nutrients where possible working in the kitchen at $0.50 / hour.
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